Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Feb 2018 · Sold by Penguin
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About this ebook
NATIONAL BESTSELLER • Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result in “the ultimate guide to thinking about risk” (Charles Duhigg, author of The Power of Habit).
“A big favorite among investors these days.”—The New York Times
“Outstanding.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
“A big favorite among investors these days.”—The New York Times
“Outstanding.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
NATIONAL BESTSELLER • Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result in “the ultimate guide to thinking about risk” (Charles Duhigg, author of The Power of Habit).
“A big favorite among investors the...
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Ratings and reviews
63 reviews
Christopher Robins
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December 14, 2022
Rethink how you measure knowledge you confident about in this book. You'll be surprised how thinking in bets will open you up to better ways of understanding and succeeding in a complex world.
BM
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April 13, 2021
This book made me want learn poker. I found that our brain need exercise of handling problem so it can be use properly when the real problem occur. Thank you so much for giving us your experience to us by writing this book
2 people found this review helpful
behrouz yaghmaeian
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September 7, 2026
مادر هرچی ایرانیه سگ گایید تنظیمات گوشی منو عوض نکن بیناموس فیس بوک و اینستاگرام من کو من اجازه ندادم به‌گوگل به اس ام اس و کالم دسترسی داشته باشه خونه زندگی من کو کس مادرا من دارو نمیخوام‌خونه میخوام پول میخوام کارای کیریتون با صاحب کارای کیریتون و نمیخوام مادر سگ اگه آدم دوست و خونواده و وطن داشته باشه تو خیابون نمیخوابه بهش دارو بدن بیناموس تو خیابون دوای کیر و خایه بهش نمیدن موقع رانندگی بهش دارو نمیدن آدم دوست و خونواده دار یه شب بیرون میخوابه نه یه سال یه کار عوض میکنه نه صدتا
About the author
Annie Duke is a bestselling author, corporate speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space. Her books Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts and Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away are both national bestsellers. As a former professional poker player, Annie won more than $4 million in tournament poker before retiring from the game in 2012. Prior to becoming a professional player, Annie was awarded a National Science Foundation Fellowship to study Cognitive Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania, completing her PhD in 2023. She is the co-founder of The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit whose mission to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education.
Annie Duke is a bestselling author, corporate speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space. Her books Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts and Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away are both national bestsellers. As a former professional poker...
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